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Increasing worries are present regarding the chance of armed conflict involving Horn of Africa countries, the Ethiopian government and Eritrea, as aggressive rhetoric has intensified in the last month.

What Did Ethiopian Officials Said?

Landlocked Ethiopia's requests for access to the sea coast through Eritrea has provoked a fierce war of words.

The Ethiopian leader previously announced in 2023 that his nation's sea access was an crucial concern, statements that Eritrean authorities ignored.

Ties between the two countries have frequently been strained. After a decades-long struggle for freedom, Eritrea, which has a long sea border, officially seceded from Ethiopia in 1993, leaving it cut off from the sea.

In 1998, a military clash broke out in which more than 100,000 people were killed.

Current Remarks from Ethiopian Government

Prime Minister Abiy and military leader Field Marshal Birhanu Jula have openly claimed control of Eritrea's maritime facility of the port of Assab – approximately 60 kilometers from the border - and hinted at the desire to capture it through military means.

On 1 September, the Prime Minister said the country's "error" of losing entry to the sea as a because of Eritrea secession would be "rectified in the future".

Ethiopia's ambassador to neighboring Kenya, former General Bacha Debele, said that Assab was "Ethiopia's wealth" and would be given back "through military action".

Eritrean Reaction to the Threats

In the face of persistent threats from Ethiopia, Eritrea's response has been limited to brief comments on social media from Communications Head Yemane Gebremeskel.

He has rejected Ethiopia's demand for maritime entry labeling it "hazardous" and a "harmful plan" of "expansionism" – a strategy of retaking former lands.

Eritrean authorities cautioned on recently that efforts to legitimise "obvious provocation" would have major implications for Ethiopia and its neighbors and is a "redline that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Military Movements on the Region

Currently, there are few indications of large-scale army activities in the boundary zones between the both nations.

Nevertheless, in the country, state television has displayed graduation ceremonies of thousands of cadets at different defense facilities.

The leader of staff section of the military, the officer, stated recently in an interview that the military was in a "reliable position" as "numerous of youths" were enlisting, which he said was "a message to our opponents".

Previous Origins of the Dispute

For over fifty years from 1890, Eritrea was administered by Italian colonisers.

Following the end of Italian rule, it was then managed by the UK forces before evolving into a integrated region of Ethiopia.

Yet in 1962 the Ethiopian emperor terminated this system and the region became fully incorporated into the Ethiopian state.

A thirty-year internal conflict occurred, ending with Ethiopia's defeat in the early 1990s. Sovereignty was then approved by Eritreans in a vote in 1993.

Briefly in the 1990s, there were positive ties between the authorities in Addis Ababa and Asmara, but they disagreed over the exact location of their shared boundary, resulting in war in 1998.

Although this ended in a ceasefire agreement in 2000, it was partially applied, and the both countries stayed at odds.

This ended in 2018, when the Prime Minister made overtures to Eritrea's leader the president. The two agreed to a statement that the war was concluded – a move that earned the Prime Minister the international recognition.

The neighboring states were then allies in Ethiopia's previous civil war in Tigray.

Yet ties have since broken down once more.