A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the country and caused turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in academia but hardly any government figures or campaigners want to engage with even the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. Each composes two essays that strive for impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and societal figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates cover national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Debate indicates an recognition of the notion that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has has important lessons to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
